الشركات تتساقط ومؤسستان كبيرتان تتجهان إلى الافلاس.. خبير اقتصادي يخرج عن صمته…هذا وضعنا في لبنان!

الجمهورية

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الاجواء السوداء اقتصادياً ومعيشياً واجتماعياً، يسير في موازاتها تحذير شبه يومي للمسؤولين الرسميين والسياسيين بأنّ الوضع النقدي في خطر. وقال مصدر مالي مسؤول لـ«الجمهورية»: لا خوف حالياً على الوضع النقدي، فالإجراءات التي تتخذها الجهات المعنية بهذا القطاع ما زالت تضع التحصينات امام الوضع النقدي وتحمي استقراره، وضعنا ليس في أحسن أحواله، هو وضع دقيق لكنه مَمسوك وتحت السيطرة. إنما على المدى البعيد، اذا استمر وضع البلد على ما هو عليه، يصبح الخوف جدياً على هذا القطاع. والكرة في ملعب السياسيين لمنع انهيار هذا القطاع، الذي يعني انهياره وصول البلد الى الانتحار.

في السياق نفسه، تتكشّف يوماً بعد يوم الآثار السلبية لسلسلة الرتب والرواتب بالطريقة التي أقرّت فيها، من دون الاصلاحات المطلوبة التي تمنع التضخم، ولا تذيب الزيادات التي أعطيت للموظفين، ولا تشكّل سبباً لضرب المؤسسات والشركات وإفلاسها، بل تشكّل رافداً للخزينة يُقلل من نسبة العجز الذي تعانيه وبلغ ارقاماً خيالية. الّا انّ ما حصل هو العكس، وبدل ان تزيد واردات وزارة المالية تراجعت مداخيلها بصورة خطيرة عمّا كانت عليه قبل إقرار السلسلة.

وعلمت «الجمهورية» من مصادر موثوقة انه منذ إقرار السلسلة وحتى اليوم، تساقطت مئات الشركات ضحايا لها، حيث أفلست وتوقفت عن العمل، وصار العاملون فيها في الشارع، وهذا الحبل مستمر حالياً، حيث تتجه مؤسستان كبيرتان في البلد الى التصفية والافلاس، وكلاهما تحويان ما يزيد عن 1200 موظف وعامل.

خبير إقتصادي

وأمّا السبب لهذا التساقط السريع، فهو كما يقول خبير اقتصادي لـ«الجمهورية»، انّ هذه السلسلة بالطريقة التي أقرّت فيها لم تحسب جيداً، بل تمّت بصورة عشوائية، الّا أنها ضربت الدورة الاقتصادية في البلد. فلنعد الى البداية، ففي لحظة إقرار السلسلة وإعطاء الزيادات للموظفين، دخل البلد في منحنى خطير، إذ مع ارتفاع الرواتب سارعَ آلاف الموظفين من مدنيين ومعلمين وعسكريين الى طلب قروض سكنية، وضخامة الارقام صارت فلكية وبالحجم الذي فاقَ قدرة مصرف لبنان على دعم فوائد قروض السكن، فلجأ فوراً الى وقف برنامج دعم فوائد قروض السكن. والنتيجة الفورية لهذا التوقف، تَجلّت بتوقف الجزء الاساس من الدورة الاقتصادية في لبنان حيث توقف البناء، الذي يعد في اي دولة في العالم بأنه أهم قاطرات الاقتصاد.

وبحسب الخبير، فإنّ ثمة تأثيراً غير مباشر سبّبته السلسلة وأدى الى خروج ما يزيد عن مليار دولار الى تركيا وحدها، ذلك انّ الآلاف من اللبنانيين، وبعد حصولهم على الزيادات قاموا برحلات سياحية الى تركيا، وصرّفوا العملة الصعبة في لبنان وأخرجوها من السوق اللبناني، وذهبوا وأنفقوها في السوق التركي.

وقال الخبير المذكور: الوضع سيكون آيلاً للسقوط أكثر، اذا ما استمر الفراغ الحكومي، ذلك انه ما زالت هناك إمكانية لاحتواء الوضع او تجميده ووقف انهياره اذا استقامت الحياة السياسية في لبنان وخرج المسؤولون من حلبة الصراع على المغانم والمصالح، وتشكلت حكومة، وصار من الغباء ان ننتظر ان يمدّ الخارج اليد للبنان لإنعاش اقتصاده، فكل العالم مأزوم بمشكلاته وعجز اقتصادياته، وامّا في لبنان فلم يعد أمامه سوى منقذ وحيد هو قطاع النفط الذي يشكّل المنفذ الوحيد المتبقّي امام لبنان لإنقاذ اقتصاده، ولكن ما استجدّ حول هذا القطاع، والحديث عن تأخير في عمليات التنقيب وعن نية بعض الشركات الخروج من اتفاقيات التنقيب، وعن عرقلة اسرائيلية لهذا القطاع ومنع لبنان من الاستفادة من ثروته في النفط والغاز، أمر خطير، ويثير الخشية من استمرار الازمة الاقتصادية في لبنان الى أمد طويل جداً.

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